Market Briefing

11 March 2010
This Market Briefing was written by Oil Market Analyst, Thorbjorn Bak Jensen
Trends

 

Rotterdam (ARA) fuel oil Singapore fuel oil US Gulf

Trading USD 3 lower

Trading 2 higher Expected to open  USD 1 higher

 

China data will support today

Consumer and producer inflation came out higher than expected at 2.7% and 5.4% respectively along with both money supply and new loans. Higher inflation is the effect of monetary stimuli, which will support oil prices. Even though retail sales came out slightly lower than expected, it increased along with industrial output from the month before.


Oil data supported oil prices

US oil inventory data, reported by the EIA, came out lower than expected. Furthermore, a large increase in crude oil inventories, signalled by API Tuesday, was not repeated. Oil product demand was reported up 3.8% higher than same period last year. Oil increased initially but failed to break upwards trough key resistance levels.


Release: EIA oil data (Consensus)

Crude: 1,400,000 barrels (1,900,000)
Distillates: -2,200,000 barrels (-900,000)
Gasoline: -2,900,000 barrels (200,000)
Refinery utilization: -1.2% (+0.2%)


Recommendation

Prices have only increased 30 cents on the Chinese numbers - we could see further increases during the day. We still keep our buying recommendation.
 

Product Change Close Trend
 London      
 ICE Gasoil - Front Month ($/MT) 14.50 664.75 -1.75
 ICE Brent - Front Month ($/bbl) 0.57 80.48 -0.04
 Brent - Prompt delivery ($/bbl) 1.52 80.64 -0.46
 New York      
 WTI Crude ($/bbl) 0.60 82.09 0.06
 NWE      
 Gasoil - 0,1% CIF Cargoes ($/MT) 16.25 675.75 Down
 Fuel Oil - 1% Fob Cargoes ($/MT) 7.25 460.75 Down
 Rotterdam      
 3,5 % Barges Fob ($/MT) 8.50 454.25 Down
 1,5% Barges Fob ($/MT) 8.50 463.25 Down
 Italy      
 3,5% Fob Med ($/MT) 6.75 439.75 Down
 Singapore      
 HSFO 180 CST Cargoes ($/MT) -4.11 472.86 Up
 US Gulf      
 3% Waterborne (Fuel oil) ($/MT) 2.86 449.74 Up