7/8/2010

Oil prices still increasing - but at a reduced pace



According to Global Risk Management’s latest Quarterly Oil Market Report, prices will increase over the coming period – but at a slower pace than anticipated in the first months of the year.

 

Global’s Oil Market Analyst, Thorbjørn Bak Jensen, along with Global’s Market Analyst on the Middle East market, Caner Seren Varol, revise the forecast down on the back of the uncertain and slower recovery and lower inflation pressure.

 

The Global Oil Strength Index (GOSI)
The index has decreased by 3 points this quarter to 59. This is primarily based on the following conclusions:

 

  • Fundamentals: Oil prices supported by decent refining margins on both heating oil and gasoline.
  • Financials: Unloading speculative positions put pressure on oil. However, positions are still relatively high and sustained growth and inflation pressure support financials.
  • Geopoliticals: Increased tension with Iran and nationalisations by Chavez support—increased production in Nigeria dampens the effect.

 

Download the entire report (pdf-file)

 

Read the press release

 

Facts about GOSI:

The Global Oil Strength Index or GOSI is a single number between 0 and 100 that signals Global Risk Management’s expectations for the oil price development. A reading below 50 indicates a declining trend – above an increasing trend.
 

 
 
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