The week ahead on economic numbers

Week 08 - 2012: The week ahead in economic numbers 

Day	Time	Event	Zone	Oil price
Tuesday	16:00	EU consumer confidence	EU
Wednesday	03:30	CN purchasing managers' index	Asia
	09:28	DE purchasing managers' index	EU
	09:58	EU purchasing mangers' index	EU
	16:00	US existing home sales	US
Thursday	10:00	DE IFO (growth index)	EU
Friday	08:00	DE imports/exports	EU
	15:55	US consumer confidence	US
	16:00	US new home sales	US

Time = CET

Oil prices increased during the past week on connued uncertainty in the Middle East and improving economic figures. In the week ahead we could see to a continuation of the trend, but the levels and the trend is now so strong that we are at “overbought” territory.

The overshadowing event of the week ahead is any progress in the Greek debt talks. In order for the agreement to come through, everyone must chip in with a higher wager to close the gap. The coalition parties in Greece have to sign that they will continue to support the budget cuts after an election. The European countries probably have to accept a lower interest rate. Investors must accept a higher haircut and the ECB will have to chip in with some of the profits from their Greek bond procurements. A deal is expected in the early part of the week. Even though a deal is likely to be agreed upon, the implementaon risks are sll plentiful, and it is difficult to see how Greece will live up to the requirements.

On the economic data front, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is key in showing whether Europe is in recovery or recession. We still see posive numbers from Germany. The German IFO numbers will probably move in tandem on Thursday.

US data from the housing sector is going to be important as well as good stascs combined with increasing employment is encouraging for the US consumer spending and risk sentiment.

Questions or comments to the above?

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