This week we highlight the rising oil prices influenced by OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical tensions, notably in the Middle East. OPEC+ is expected to delay a production increase, keeping Brent prices steady with a potential rise toward $80 in 2025. The TTF gas market remains volatile, driven by high Asian LNG demand and supply uncertainties from Russia and Ukraine.

In the Energy Market Drivers report from October 24, GRM analyses the potential impact of the US election on oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rates, noting that election outcomes might have an overstated impact on oil markets. Brent is expected to range-trade, with attention shifting to OPEC+ and production levels for December.

The October 18, 2024 Energy Market Drivers report highlights Brent stabilising after a tough week, driven by reduced geopolitical risk, oil demand concerns, and market volatility. It also notes a low correlation between EUA and TTF gas, with geopolitical tensions expected to dominate. Hedging strategies are advised for key price ranges.

In our latest Energy Market Drivers report from October 04, we discussed that geopolitics would set
the stage the coming week and that one should forget about China, OPEC+ and other fundamental
factors in the oil market.

In our latest Energy Market Drivers report from September 27, we discussed three key
developments that would drive the oil price in the short term. We argued that Saudi Arabia is
flirting with a volume strategy, that Libyan oil will return to the market, and that China has taken
out a “bazooka” to support its economy.

In our latest Energy Market Drivers report from September 20, we argued based on the 50bp Fed
cut, geopolitics, a tight physical market and stretched positioning that optimism had reeturned to the
crude oil market.