Daily Market Briefing
Trade talks between China and the U.S. are allegedly going well and the U.S. president seems open to a prolongation of the current trade war truce which expires on 1 Marth. Later this week, higher level talks are taking place and – things going well – the two countries’ presidents could meet next month. The trade war could affect global growth and therefore global demand for oil which is why the progress in talks is followed so closely also by the oil markets.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. shale oil output continues to climb. In March, the EIA forecast that the 7 largest shale oil formations in the U.S. will increased by 84,000 barrels per day to a record of 8.4 mio. barrels per day. Total U.S. crude oil production is around 11.9 mio. barrels per day and will likely increase further over the next years. Still, the country struggles to align the pipeline capacity to the heavy increase in production.
Overnight, Japanese trade activities data was released and came out lower than expected both for exports and imports. Later today, the U.S. central bank will release its latest meeting minutes, markets will look for hints of coming – or lack of coming – interest rate hikes and the monetary policy of the Fed. Tomorrow, the European central bank will release its meeting minutes.