Quarterly Oil Market Outlook July '19
In the Quarterly Oil Market Outlook we look at fundamental, geopolitical and financial influence on oil price development over the coming quarter. We find that the coming period could see heavy volatility as trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East take centre stage.
Oil fundamentals are basically bullish due to production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC along with sanctions resulting in reduced exports from both Iran and Venezuela.
However, the current trade war between the U.S. and China - though "ceasefire" was agreed during the G20 summit in June - could affect global economic growth and hence global demand for oil. If demand drops, so could oil prices.
Dark horses are among others the risk of escalating Middle East tensions and the central banks, which could introduce new quantitative easing measures to spur economic growth - and voila - demand for oil likely picks up.