Quarterly Oil Market Outlook Oct'18
In our Quarterly Oil Market Outlook we look at fundamental, geopolitical and financial influence on oil price development over the coming quarter.
Main potential oil market driver is the U.S. re-imposing of sanctions against Iran from 4 November which have already, even though not yet implemented, caused huge oil price fluctuations over the last couple of months. Iran is one of the largest oil producers in the world and taking the country's oil exports off the market would call for increased supply by other oil producers if oil prices should remain unaffected. Hence, market focus is on news and numbers from oil producers to grasp if they will be able to offset the missing Iranian barrels.
A side-effect of the elevated oil prices could be limited economic growth especially in the emerging markets, but this remains to be seen, according to our analyses, as there is likely a time lag.
Conclusion is that supply/demand balance could shift during this quarter and risk of oil price fluctuations is imminent and a general uptrend seems in place, at least with the current outlook.
Our oil price forecast
Please note that the forecast is the AVERAGE price per quarter. Thus, prices during the quarter will likely be both higher and lower.