Geopolitics Set the Direction in Oil: Correlation Breakdown Between EUA and Gas Prices

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Content

• Market view oil: Forget about OPEC+, now It’s all about geopolitics
  • What If Israel targets Iranian oil Installations?
  • Speculations mount that an Israeli attack on Iranian oil installations is imminent
  • How important is Iran for the global oil and product market?
  • What are the scenarios for Brent prices?
    • The escalation scenario
    • The de-escalation scenario:
• Market view EUA and TTF gas: The correlation has broken down
  • EUA prices under pressure
  • Supportive factors for the gas market
• Market Drivers next week: All eyes on Geopolitics
• Hedging views (consumer side):
  • Oil/oil products: Add to consumer hedges when Brent trade in the USD 70-74 range
  • EUA: Buy EUAs when DEC-24 below EUR 64 MT
  • Gas: Buy when TTF front-month below EUR 36 MWH

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