Welcome to “10 Minutes About” from Global Risk Management. Chief Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen and PA Arma Selimovic dive into the latest developments in the European gas market and the risks driving current price dynamics.
With TTF gas trading around EUR 40/MWh, down from over EUR 55 in February, they explore whether this level is sustainable or if a summer price spike is ahead. A key concern is Europe’s ability to refill gas inventories in time for next winter, following the halt of pipeline flows through Ukraine and increased reliance on LNG imports.
They discuss how competition with Asia for LNG could tighten supply, and why the market is already pricing in this so-called “refilling risk.” The role of speculative money is also addressed, with Arne noting that while futures traders impact short-term moves, physical market fundamentals remain the main driver.
Looking ahead, Arne warns that gas prices may rise over the summer and possibly next winter, highlighting the value of strong hedging strategies for consumers in today’s uncertain market.
Disclaimer: The video was recorded before the Trump tariff announcement on April 2
