In this edition of “10 Minutes About”, the gas market takes center stage, with TTF front month trading near €30/MWh amid a bearish sentiment. Inventories remain 15% below last year, particularly in Germany, though a smooth refill could bring levels closer to normal by winter. Still, risks of sharp 20–25% price spikes persist.
Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, highlights that Europe has relied on LNG to replace lost Russian pipeline flows, but rising Chinese buying may tighten competition and lift prices. Looking ahead, Q4–Q1 volatility calls for active hedging, with dips offering entry levels and spikes into the mid-30s to 40s strong triggers, while future US LNG growth should cap prices beyond 2026.