Physical markets tighten across crude, diesel, HSFO and gas as freight rates soar and Trump seeks lower energy prices ahead of the midterms

October 16, 2026

In this Energy Market Drivers edition:

 

  • Crude oil and geopolitics: High physical premiums and tanker rates expose a fragile supply recovery
  • Diesel gasoil and MGO: Trump seeks lower prices, but the supply shortage remains
  • Bunker markets: Singapore HSFO tightness drives HI5 sharply lower
  • European gas: EUR 100/MWh for TTF/THE remains within reach
  • EUAs: Still a tight market, but compliance buying support behind us
  • Hedging views (all products): Hedge ratio above benchmark. Length/duration below benchmark. Consider options as a hedging instrument
  • GRM Forecasts: Oil, Gas, EUAs and FX

     

 

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Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
Chief Analyst, Head of Research at Global Risk Management

Phone +45 2146 2951

E-mail: Arra@global-riskmanagement.com

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