In this edition of “10 Minutes About”, the EUA market takes the spotlight. Historically, EUA and gas prices have moved in tandem through fuel switching, but this correlation has recently broken down. While summer gas demand is driven by storage needs, EUA demand peaks in winter, creating a growing disconnect.
Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, points out that a tighter balance is expected from 2026–2027, as CBAM reduces free allowances, more shipping enters the system, and previously frontloaded volumes run out. With surrender deadlines and speculative activity adding short-term pressure, EUAs increasingly act as a financial asset where future scarcity is already priced in.
