This week, we analyse key market drivers, including bearish sentiment in oil markets driven by US negotiations with Russia, inflation concerns delaying rate cuts, and rising US crude inventories. We also examine the TTF gas market, where prices fluctuated due to shifting EU storage policies and potential geopolitical shifts, and the EUA market, where hedging flows remain a key factor.
Market Insights
Market Insights
Sanctions and tariffs set the direction in the oil market. Rally in TTF gas
This week, we analyse key market drivers, including the delayed US tariffs on Mexican and Canadian oil, new sanctions on Iran under the “maximum pressure” strategy, and the rally in TTF gas prices amid declining EU inventories. It also provides hedging insights for oil, EUA, and TTF gas, highlighting risks and opportunities in the energy sector.
OPEC+ and possible tariffs on Canada and Mexico create uncertainty in the oil market. Refilling risks push gas even higher
This week we analyse key market factors, including the impact of potential US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil, OPEC+’s resistance to production increases despite pressure from Trump, and the continued strength of the HSFO market. It also provides hedging insights for oil, EUA, and TTF gas, highlighting risks and opportunities in the energy sector.
Trump 2.0 pushes prices lower, but only temporarily. The gas market remains strong
This week, we focus on the bearish oil market reaction following Trump’s inauguration, driven by regulatory shifts, OPEC production pressures, and cautious investment sentiment. We also discuss rising TTF gas prices due to low EU inventories and refilling risks, offering hedging strategies and updated price forecasts for oil, gas, and EUAs amid market uncertainty.
Sanctions set the direction of the oil market. Risks of higher gasoil/diesel cracks
This week’s energy market drivers focus on Russian sanctions disrupting over 1 million barrels/day of exports and Brent trading near USD 82. The Trump administration signals support for stricter sanctions on Russia and potential policy shifts on LNG exports. Crack spreads for diesel and jet fuel rise, while European gas prices dip amid profit-taking, though winter supply risks remain high.
Energy Market Drivers: Oil is the new black and “sell the rumour, by the fact” in TTF gas
This weeks we focus on the bullish oil market sentiment driven by tighter physical balances, OPEC+ compliance, and geopolitical factors like sanctions on Russia and Iran. We also discusses declining TTF gas prices due to profit-taking and market adjustments, while providing hedging strategies and price forecasts for oil, gas, and EUAs amid ongoing volatility.
Oil, gas and EUA prices moved higher in December. Buy on dips
Brent crude sentiment improved as prices rose above $76. TTF gas surged 25% in Q4 2024 due to low storage and reduced LNG imports, pushing EUA prices higher amid tighter 2025 market balance. Hedging is advised for EUAs, gas, and oil on dips, and USD risks require caution with exposure.
Focus on sanctions in the oil market. Add to EUA and TTF gas hedge ratio after correction in prices
This week’s energy market drivers focus on sanctions, with OPEC+ delaying production increases and Brent near USD 74. The US plans renewed pressure on Iran, while tighter sanctions on Russian oil emerge. Gas prices corrected, but winter supply risks persist.
OPEC+ kicks the can down the road and the oil price outlook for 2025
This week’s energy market driver highlights OPEC+ delaying oil production increases to September 2026, with Brent trading below USD 72. Internal cartel tensions persist, and winter risks for gas and power remain key focus areas.
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