Brent remains near USD 72 as OPEC+ postpones production plans, fueling speculation of delayed output hikes. Mild European weather and stable Russian gas flows eased prices, but risks linger with low inventories and potential winter shortages. Tight HSFO markets persist, driven by strong maritime demand and reduced refinery supply.

We explore the rising geopolitical risks, with Brent prices expected to remain in the USD 70-74 range as OPEC+ likely delays production increases. Meanwhile, heightened concerns over potential disruptions to Ukrainian gas flows and reduced European inventories push TTF gas prices higher, particularly as winter demand grows.

In this issue of Energy Market Drivers, we examine the oversupplied oil market, with Brent expected to trade in the USD 70-74 range in the coming weeks, as OPEC+ is likely to delay production increases. For TTF gas, market concerns are rising due to potential disruptions in Ukrainian gas flows and Germany’s ban on Russian LNG, pushing winter prices higher.